Upon having the most value
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Season 152 574 115 170 38 1 46 140 1 .296 .394 .606
155 577 117 184 26 1 46 124 16 .319 .421 .607
Consider if you will the above two stat lines. Two similar seasons. The Runs are almost the same. Player 2 has the edge in hits, but Player 1 has more doubles. Triples and HR are even. Player 1 is out in front in RBI, but player 2 has many more steals. Average, On-base, Slugging (and OPS) all go to Player 2.
Now the anonimity of these two players allows us to consider them on the basis of their stats. The RBI lead speaks loudly for Player 1, but nearly all the rest of the offense goes to Player 2. The difference in steals more than mitigates the doubles lead.
Lets look at a few more stats:
Strike-outs- Player 1- 116 Player 2- 133 - Edge Player 1
Walks- Player 1- 98 Player 2- 88 -Edge Push, as player 1 hits more
Ground into Double Play- P1-13 P2- 8 - Edge Player 2
I don't have the exact numbers here, but Player 1 has an average 40 or so points higher with RISP, but Player 2 has more game winning RBI.
So looking at these players with no names attached, this is a tough call, right?
Now I'll give you two more numbers
Games Played Defensively-
Player 1- 10
Player 2- 155
Now, again with no names attached, wouldn't you wonder why
Player 2 has played nearly every game in the field, but Player 1 has only 10 games? Going purely based on these numbers above, who would you say is the more valuable player? Was Player 1 at the DH for 140 games? If we assume that, then his only defensive value was not being on the field, right? Wouldn't a somewhat capable fielder make it out there once in a while? Offense for Offense, this is a dead heat. However, this is not a race for the silver slugger. Numbers for Numbers, you would have a convincing argument on either side. But...
A PLAYER MUST NOT BE CONSIDERED MORE VALUABLE THAN ANOTHER IF ONE PLAYS THE ENTIRE GAME, AND ONE ONLY HALF.
If Player 1's reputation as "clutch" convinces people of his value, then does his absence from 80 games worth of baseball (half innings seated firmly on the bench) not decrease his value exponentially? Would you consider a player who only played after the All-Star break the most valuable player in baseball? After all, he did only play in half of his teams games. You may have a valid case as the most valuable hitter in the game, but the award in question is not most valuable hitter.
Put this another way. Would you as a GM trade unnamed Player 1 for unnamed Player 2? I contend that AL or NL, you would not take Player 1 and give up Player 2, but you would take Player 2 and give up Player 1.
Someone care to try and rationally convince me otherwise?
posted by Charlie at 4:58 PM
2 Comments:
suddenly defense matters?
Barry Bonds has won 4 Straight MVPs. 3 of those years his fielding percentage was BELOW the league average for his position.
Never is defense a part of the discussion except when a DH has a legit shot at the award.
Lets do a little math
Yanks have played 157 games. In a standard game, there is 27 outs. So, they've had 4239 total outs if you don't inlcude errors, missed chances and extra innings.
A-Rod has had 398 TOTAL CHANCES... So, do a little math. A Rod has been in involved in a total of 9% of the teams defense. (funny how that works out, 9 defensive players, they all get about equal amount of work) Of course, this doesn't work in team errors, missed chances, and extra innings... So, lets knock off 2% points to make up for that ...and A-Rod's defense accounts for only 7% of the team's defense.
Would a GM trade A-Rod for Big Papi? no, but that's a different discussion. GM's don't make trades based on "what'd you do for me this year", they make trades on "what can you do for me in the future?" There is no question A-Rod is a better player overall, but there is a question as to if he is the MVP this year.
And, btw, i don't have an affiliation, so honestly i don't care who wins. If A-Rod wins, good for him. I just think that it's unfair to say Ortiz shouldn't get it cause he's a DH when Defense never plays into the equation unless a DH is involved.
What to look at when the numbers are so close?
In most years... maybe defense.
This year... This weekend series. Who's gonna show up bigtime and propel their team into the playoffs? If they both do very well or very poorly, then i guess defense can be called into question.
It's a unique year, that's for sure. Exciting stuff.
Thanks for the link, you're defintely going up next time i update my links.
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