Upon the NL MVP- Part Three
In regard to the David Wright vs Matt Holliday arguement, I think that the offensive number comparison bears repeating. I know offense does not determine the MVP, but again, if a tie has to be broken....
Batting Average: Matt Holliday- 2nd NL David Wright- 7th NL
Home Runs: MH- 4th DR-13th
RBI: MH-1st DR- 9th
Runs: MH- 4th DR- 6th
2B- MH- 1st DR- tie-10th
OBP- MH-8th DR- 4th
SLG- MH-2 DR- 11th
Hits- MH- 1st DR- 6th
Thats not even close. All the offensive numbers favor Holliday. Plus. Wright's team is in the crapper, and Holliday's is surging. Sure Holliday got hurt recently, but he's still got league leading numbers. And he's and average of 7 places better than Wright in terms of NL rankings, and top 5 in everything but OBP. Wright isn't top 5 in anything. There are at least 5 players better than Wright in every offensive category. I can't say thats an MVP. You couldn't say it about Jeter last year, you can't say it about A-rod this year. If the Rockies make it, Holliday should win the award.
How about fielding you say?
David Wright ranks 9th in fielding % among NL 3b. Only 2 3b have made more errors, and only by 2. (23 to 21). He ranks 8th in zone rating among NL 3b. His Range factor is squarely in the middle. Are these MVP defensive numbers that make-up for an offensive game that overall is not top 5?
Holliday has the #1 Zone rating at his position. I know that third and LF are not comprable, but #1 is #1.
So, sell me on Wright's candidacy again?
posted by Charlie at 3:42 PM
18 Comments:
Hard sale right now with the Mets tanking. My position is not so much that Wright deserves (which I think he does), but that Holliday does not. Holliday as a candidate is a complete and utter joke. Look at his home/road splits. Last I looked, he was hitting .374 with 25 homers at home and .300 with 11 homers. Take away Coors Field, and he's not even in Wright's league. I strongly believe that Wright deserves the MVP if the Mets make the playoffs. His professionalism and consistency as a hitter are second to no one. His baserunning is as good as anyone I've ever seen and he gets one big hit after another. As I said, he's Jeter with power. If the Mets tank (which I fear they will), I'd vote for Jimmy Rollins. Sick numbers for a lead-off hitter/shortstop, and the sparkplug for a team that everyone else gave up on. The only other person I would consider is Prince Fielder, and only if the Brewers somehow catch the Cubs. If they catch the Cubs and he has a big hand in it, he'd probably get my vote. With all that said, Holliday will probably win b/c the voters have declered the Coor Field effect dead on account of the humidor though it lives on and they are too lazy to look at the evidence.
Dude, he hits well on the road and rakes at home. Wright's numbers at home mirror Holliday's on the road closely, and Wright's on the road are well below Holliday's at home.
J Ro is good, as is Prince, but heads up I think Holliday is a better candidate this year than Wright.
Holliday "rakes at home" b/c everyone rakes at Coors. Look at the splits of the other Rockies -- Atkins, Hawpe, Helton, etc. Its a joke.
If Papi gets credit for his wall-scrapers at Fenway, Holliday gets credit for good numbers at Coors.
And wright being Jeter with power
how about batting with 2 out and RISP?
Wright- .203 average this year
Holliday- .319 average this year
Jeter- .424 average this year
who's clutch?
As an AL fan, you probably have yet to contemplate the Coors effect. It's not just that its easy for homers, it is easy for everything. The fences are very deep and the outfielders play very deep b/c the ball travels so well. Check out the diminsions -- the place is huge. As a result, every line drive and blooper into the outfield falls for a single and guys end up with bloated averages as well as homer totals. Most importantly, the pitchers cannot throw breaking balls in the thin air, leaving pitchers with only fastball/sinker/changeups to throw. You gotta take Holliday's numbers with a grain of salt.
As for hitting in the clutch, here are their averages in Late Inning Pressure Situations with Runners On:
David Wright: .323 this year
Holliday: .261 this year
The Captain: .229 this year
Read it and weep.
I looked up Coors' dimensions in case you were curious -- leftfield line 347; leftcenter 390; center 415; rightcenter 375; rightfield line 350.
By the way, when I say that Wright is Jeter with power, I truly mean it as a complement to both men and to help you, as a Yankee fan, to appreciate just how good DW really is. He does all the little things Yankee fans love Jeter for which don't necessarily show up in the boxscore (including hitting in the clutch), and he hits 30 homers as well.
"As for hitting in the clutch, here are their averages in Late Inning Pressure Situations with Runners On:
David Wright: .323 this year
Holliday: .261 this year
The Captain: .229 this year
Read it and weep."
try again
Jeter's late and close average is .313 to Wright's .342.
and again, wright bats at the menodza line with RISP and 2 outs, to Jeter's .400.
Just to show that the Coors' effect is alive and well:
Home Road
Tulowitzki .330 .257
Atkins .338 .244
Hawpe .305 .266
Helton .331 .310
These were the only players I looked up besides Holliday and his 374/301 split.
You gotta agree with me when I state that if Holliday played 81 games at Shea and Wright played 81 ganes at Coors, Holliday's stats would not even be close to Wright's and he would not be in consideration for the MVP.
If the season ended today, I would vote Wright, Rollins and Fielder 1,2 and 3. But, unfortunately for the Mets, it ends on Sunday.
Well in Hollidays 3 games at Shea
.462, 4 RBI, 6 hits, 2 runs scored
In Wrights 3 games at Coors
.500, 5 RBI, 6 hits, 1 run scored
Looks pretty even in the small sample. Wright didnt hit 6 HR or have 12 hits in Colorado.
Look, I'm not saying Colorado doesn't help, but he still did what he did. So he killed it in a good hitters park, and won is team home games. thats pretty "valuable". Look at Prince. he batted 30 points higeher ay home, with 23 more RBI, much higher OBP and SLG.
CBS sportsline has Jeter at .278 in Late Inning Pressure and .229 in Late Inning Pressure with runners on. Probably a different stat than you're citing. In any event, you must admit that DW's .342 you cited is pretty damn impressive and better than Jeter's .313.
Moot point now. Mets are done. My vote (if I had one) would go to JRoll.
i don't really want to do the numbers again, but Holliday is clearly a superior offensive player with insane spetember numbers, exactly when his team needs them.
Please argue for Rollins over MH. Coors effect doesnt count
The problem is I cannot accept as true the premise that Holliday is a superior offensive player to either Wright or Rollins, let alone Fielder. His numbers are grossly inflated by his ballpark.
Question: If you doubled Holliday's road stats and ignored his home stats, would he still be a candidate? Of course not. Wright and Rollins would be.
Dude, baseball-reference.com has park adjusted stats -- pretty cool.
R HR RBI Ave OPS
Wright 108 31 104 .328 .981
Holliday 103 33 116 .317 .952
No longer so clear that Holliday is a superior offensive player, particulalry when you add DW's net stolen bases to his OPS.
How about a debate about about AL Cy Young. Sabathia or Beckett? Or would you prefer Wang or Carmona. Beckett has nice numbers, but I think I like all those innings pitched from the big guy. Work horses like that are hard to come by these days.
Its a new post, prob coming this weekend. if your interested, i'm gonna run the MVP , CY and Rookie picks, and Ill include your thoughts below each in italics if you want to drop a few lines.
Also, check out the similar batter page on Wright at baseball ref. #1... you guessed it- Matt holliday
That's my point -- they are similar offensive players (park adjusted), except Wright can run. He's an incredible baserunner by the way. Always takes the extra base, never makes a mistake. The kid is just a ballplayer, plain and simple. But I digress. My feeling is that you only vote for a player on a team that misses the post season if that player's stats blows away the competition. Like Arod in Texas or Andre Dawson with the Cubs. If there is a worthy candidate on a playoff team, you should give him the benefit of the doubt. I don't think Holliday and Fielder meet that standard this year, and you gotta hold Fielder's defense against him (the ignorant voters won't, of course, they're fascinated with homers and nothing else). Did you see last year's MVP prove my point about the value of defense when he cost the Fillies the game by failing to "scoop" a low throw which he could have caught on the fly but for his morbid obesity and then booting a grounder hit right at him? Pathetic.
After we see who makes the post season, we can have a more informed debate. But as of now I think it should be either Wright or Rollins (depending upon what happens today and maybe tomorrow), unless the
Rocks get the wildcard and then Holliday replaces either Wright or Rollins as a finalist. And I wouldn't give Holliday any points for leading the pack in zone rating. Did you see that motley crew of has beens and should be DH's playing left field in the NL? Not a good fielder among them. I also noticed that while DW's defense has suffered the past month, he remains ahead of Arod in zone rating and should get credit for playing a demanding position and playing it fairly well. Rollins should get lots of credit for playing the second most demanding position (behind catcher) and playing it well.
Tough choices this year for NL MVP, AL Cy Young, and NL rookie of the year. AL MVP is obvious, NL Cy Young should be obvious (Peavy) and AL rookie of the year might not be so obvious, but its not as compelling a choice as the NL with Braun, Lincecum and Tulowitzi all being future superstars. Can't see Dustin P. or Brian Bannister developing into much more than they already are and I hate voting for japanese players as "rookies."
Let's Go Mets!
Oh, wait....
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